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Why lockdowns are the wrong policy: Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke

UnHerd

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  • Recommended by 7 people, in Hacker News, across 3 different months.
  • Presented by Prof. Johan Giesecke, as the video describes them
  • May be out of date. Findings or guidance it presents have likely moved on.
  • Debated among experts. Its central claim is contested, so look for the other side.

For anyone, no background needed. Education, not medical advice.

1.4M views6 years ago7 recommendations

Evidence and public healthInfectious diseaseEpidemiology and statisticsPublic health and policy

Epidemiologist Johan Giesecke argues that restrictive lockdowns are not evidence-based and that countries should focus on protecting the vulnerable.

Freddie sayers meets Prof. Johan Giesecke. Read the full article here: unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giese… In an extraordinary interview with UnHerd, Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based, and much more. Follow UnHerd on social media: Twitter: twitter.com/unherd Facebook: facebook.com/unherd/ #UnHerd #Sweden #JohanGiesecke

Why it's here

7 people recommend this

What people say. Linked as an informative perspective from a senior epidemiologist on Sweden's unconventional, non-lockdown approach to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Moments people linked to

9nGQluzmnq3Min Hacker News • Recommends

On “Rt: Effective Reproduction Number of Covid-19”

Here's an interesting interview with a senior epidemiologist partly responsible for Sweden's unconventional strategy: link to this video TL;DW: Preventing transmission in the long term is impossible and the actual fatality rate is likely on the order of 0.1%, so general lockdowns are pointless and being driven mostly by political considerations (something must be done and this is something). Just protect the elderly and weak.
View on Hacker News

salimmadjdin Hacker News • Recommends

On “The epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial coronavirus strategy”

…. However one counter point by Johan Giesecke was that these flattening the curve is motivated by the assumption of a static capacity of ER rooms to deal with this pandemic and he pointed out they have increased capacity. Overall I found listening to his side very informative, at least it gave me a different view of looking at from their view. 0 link to this video 1 link…
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rishirishiin Hacker News • Recommends

On “Seattle’s leaders let scientists take the lead, New York’s did not”

As I see it, lockdowns are not effective and were a massive mistake. You may find this epidemiologist's perspective to be interesting: link to this video
View on Hacker News

dcanelhasin Hacker News • Recommends

On “Getting Back to Work”

Sweden has a rather different welfare system, typical population density, income distribution, typical household demographic, urban planning and culture regarding social interactions, compared to many places that would use it as an example for what to do in this crisis. I think following the available evidence, interpreted by experts is the way to go. Ultimately the argument for Sweden's policy seems to be less based on cost saving than general wellbeing. A good bit of insight here: link to this video
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benjaminwoottonin Hacker News • Recommends

On “How Apocalyptic Is Now?”

Unherd.com have had some of the best journalism of the crisis so far. In particular some of the interviews with epedimiologists: link to this video link link
View on Hacker News

K0nservin Hacker News • Recommends

On “Stockholm Won't Reach Herd Immunity in May, Sweden's Chief Epidemiologist Says”

I'm Swedish but I live in Scotland and I've been watching the Swedish approach to COVID with great interest. I remain fairly sceptical but I also thought this interview0 with Johan Giesecke who was the previous state epidemiologist and is advising both WHO and the current state epidemiologist interesting. In particular it seems like Sweden messed up the response in elderly care which is something that everyone is admiting to. I do think it's too early to say whether Sweden's approach is as bad as it currently looks, likely this is not something that can be measured and compared to other nations for years. 0: link to this video
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jansanin Hacker News • Recommends

On “The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy”

Here is an interview with Prof Johan Giesecke from April 2020. In hindsight one can call his statements prophetic. link to this video They had a clear plan, unlike other governments like Germany, who still do not have a plan how to get out of this mess.
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future of civ6n is ass3din Skeptics Stack Exchange • Mentions

In an link to this video Prof. Johan Giesecke says that one of the reasons why Sweden is not worried about the UK-style scenarios for Covid-19 is that Sweden has tripled its ICU capacity (which the UK Imperial College paper he deems responsible for the U-turn in UK policy assumed as static.) Is this claim of tripled ICU capacity in Sweden true? (And does it depend on some more relaxed definition of ICU?)
16View on Stack Exchange

future of civ6n is ass3din Skeptics Stack Exchange • Mentions

On the UnHerd youtube channel, link to this video "Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke" who said (around 3 minutes in) that while there's science behind hand washing to prevent the spread of disease, but the rest of them measures like border closures, school closures, social distancing there's almost no science behind most of these. Giesecke seem to be fairly well-known, e.g. he has a WHO page which says "he was the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)." So is what he saying true, especially about social distancing?
7View on Stack Exchange

salimmadjdin Hacker News • Mentions

On “Elon Musk reopening Tesla factory despite Alameda County order”

I have to side with Musk here. I want to see what everything Tesla is doing to protect their employees and if they are following a subset of the below guidelines that I've listed. Temperature check at entrance, mask requirement, strict hand sanitization, etc. Then let Musk commercialize the process of opening up businesses. Some background: I followed Corona (COVID19 now) from late January very closely and read most published papers. I strongly supported the "flattening of the curve" and encouraged the lockdown and we practiced/and practice strict social distancing. That being said, hearing countering arguments from various scientist (2013 Noble prize winner 0). The Swedish epidemiologist…
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cinntailein Hacker News • Mentions

On “Anders Tegnell defends Sweden's virus approach”

…out their immunity claims and it was based on a flawed study.1 They have since put out a correct version. The most recent numbers say Stockholm is at about 7,3%.2 This article is actually a pretty good representation of how they have been communicating. Something similar to flock immunity is implied while not actually being flock immunity. 0 link to this video 1 link 2 link…
View on Hacker News